Sweepstakes Example
To see how much a typical sweepstakes ticket is worth, let's look at a well-known sweepstakes.
We'll consider McDonald's Monopoly (In-Store) Instant Win Game.
| Fair Sale Value of Sweepstakes Ticket in McDonalds Monopoly Instant Win Game | ||
| Possible Prizes (excluding food) | Odds | Fair Sale Value |
| $50 check | 1 in 74,282 | . 07 |
| $50 gift card | 1 in 222,845 | .02 |
| $25,000 | 1 in 111,422,360 | .02 |
| Source: Official Rules, 2007 Game | Total: .11 |
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As the table shows, the total EV of one of these sweepstakes tickets is 11/100 of a cent.
That's a fair sale value of about 1/10 of a cent!
Now, McDonalds might say that one lucky visitor can also win $50,000 per year for 20 years.
This offer is not part of the Instant Win Game but let's look at it anyway.
Let's estimate that McDonalds has 50 million visits over the month period of the Game.
- So, the chance of winning is 1 in 50,000,000
- The EV of this chance then equals (1/50,000,000) x ($50,000)
- That equals 1/10th of a cent per year
- That means an EV of 2 cents, paid out over 20 years.
Truly, conventional sweepstakes tickets and offers are nearly worthless.